Have Australian politics stabilized or will we see more prime ministers with shortened terms?

  • Polling for the major parties even and low at 37%.
  • Parties eroded both from their radical flanks (Labor by Greens, Liberals by host of right wing parties), and from centrist populists (Nick Xenophon).
  • Liberal Party split between moderates and conservatives, with conservatives openly sniping at Turnbull or breaking away, and several conservative pretenders waiting in the wings.
  • Only the embarrassment of having more leadership spills than Labor is holding the Lib conservatives back.
  • Rudd’s last hurrah as second-time PM was to change the rules for how the leader of the Labor party is voted in, to give the membership a vote, and prevent repetitions of rapid coups.
  • No obvious challengers within the Labor party to Shorten right now; Albanese and Plibersek to his left are being loyal.
  • Labor, after a lot of bloodletting, is currently stable, and have put structures in place to keep them stable; but that may well change again if they’re in government. The Libs are not looking like a happy family in government, and they’ve never had the discipline around factions that Labor did.
  • The fundamentals that toppled all those PMs in a row are still there: neck-to-neck polling, panicky parliamentarians, populace disengaged with the major parties, lack of ideological cohesion or direction in the major parties, personality-driven rather than caucus-driven politics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *